MAROUN SEMAAN FACULTY OF ENGINEERING AND ARCHITECTURE DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT COURSE SYLLABUS ENMG 603 Probability and Decision Analysis Fall 2025-2026

General Course Information

Table 1: Overview of Course Information

General Information

Course Number	ENMG 603
Course Title	Probability and Decision Analysis
Number of Credits	3
Course Level	graduate
Course Format	Face-to-Face
Pre-requisite Courses	List pre-requisite or co-requisite course(s)
Required/Elective	Required
Meeting Schedule
Meeting Location

Course Coordinator, Instructors and Teaching Assistants

Table 2: Contact Information for Course Coordinators, Instructors, and Teaching Assistants

Name	Role (Instructor, Coordinator, TA,)	Office Location	Office Hours	Extension	E-mail
Majd Olleik	Assistant professor	Bechtel 410	mo10@aub.edu.lb

Course Description

This course aims at providing a coherent approach to decision making by developing rules of thought to transform complex decisions into simpler decision situations. Basic techniques of modern decision analysis are discussed; and the emphasis of the course is on the development of models to represent decision situations using probability and utility theory. The course makes use of spreadsheet modeling where tools such as PrecisionTree and @Risk are used.

Course Learning Outcomes

Upon completion of the course, students will be able to:

CLO1. Understand the basics of systematic decision making and the steps involved in the process

CLO2. Understand the importance of clarifying the decision makers’ objectives and preferences and learn tools to do that

CLO3. Learn basic tools for decomposing the decision context and assessing the alternatives available.

CLO4. Appreciate the importance of subjectivity in decision making while striving for consistence Learn the basic theory behind LP

CLO5. Apply the concepts of sensitivity analysis to classify uncertainties by importance and relevance

CLO6. Understand basic probability concepts and their relation to decision analysis

CLO7. Perform Monte Carlo simulations and analyze the effects of uncertainties on decision making

CLO8. Be familiar with risk attitudes and their impact on the decision maker choices through utility theory

CLO9. Understand the basics multi-attribute utility

CLO10. Appreciate the importance of information and its value in the decision context

CLO11.

CLO12.

CLO13.

CLO14.

CLO15.

Program Learning Outcomes Addressed in The Course

Explicitly indicate which of the program learning outcomes are addressed in the course.

PLO1. Research Methods: Analyze qualitative and quantitative information while conducting or applying research related to their graduate program

PLO2. Advanced Core Knowledge in the Discipline: Analyze core concepts and theories in different areas of study in their discipline.

PLO3.

PLO4.

PLO5.

PLO6.

PLO7.

PLO8.

PLO9.

PLO10.

PLO11.

PLO12.

PLO13.

PLO14.

PLO15.

Course Resources and References

Indicate textbook title, author, and year. Include a link to the Moodle page or the course web page.

Book: Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools, 3rd Edition, by Robert T. Clemen and Terence ReillyA Moodle page for the course is available.

Course Outline

Include the topics covered and learning activities (assignments, projects, term papers, etc.) with their due dates. Indicate the alignment of topics/ learning activities with the Course Learning Outcomes.

Table 3: Course Schedule Overview

Week	Date	Topic	Learning Activities and Due Dates	Alignment with CLOs
1	Introduction to decision analysis	CLO1
2	Structuring values, objectives and decisions	CLO1-4
3	Tools used to make choices	CLO4
4	Tools used to make choices	HW1 due	CLO1, 3
5	Sensitivity analysis	CLO1,3
6	Organizational use of decision analysis	HW2 due (in-class presentations)	CLO5
7	Basic probability concepts	CLO6
8	Theoretical probability models	CLO6
9	Subjective probability assessments	HW3 due	CLO4
10	Data and Monte Carlo simulations	Project phase 1 due	CLO7
11	Data and Monte Carlo simulations	CLO7
12	Introduction to utility theory and risk attitude modeling	HW4 due	CLO8
13	Introduction to multi-attribute utility	CLO9
14	Value of information	Project phase 2 due [project presentations]	CLO10
15

Indicate mode of delivery as Lecture, Recitation, Laboratory, Team-based Learning, etc.

Include all methods for assessing student achievement, including assessment rubrics for evaluating the learning activities.

Grading Criteria

Table 4:Evaluation Criteria and Percentage

Type of Evaluation	Percentage
Assignments	18%
Project	40%
Final Exam	40%
Class participation	2%
Total	100%

Course Policies

Attendance

For undergraduate courses:

“Students who miss more than one-fifth of the sessions of any course prior to the withdrawal deadline can be withdrawn from the course by the instructor.”

For graduate courses:

“A student who is absent without excuse for more than one third of the number of sessions in any course may be dropped by the instructor of the course”.

Credit Hour Policy

“This course follows AUB Credit Hour Policy for one credit courses. This course meets twice weekly for 3 academic hours per week. The course also includes independent out-of-class assignments for academic hours per week.”

Submissions and Due Dates

Homework exercises will be assigned and graded frequently. Students are encouraged to discuss the exercises among themselves but are required to submit their answers in writing individually indicating the names of the students they collaborated with. This course is applied and therefore solving exercises is the best way to understand the material.Students are required to hand-write (on paper or tablet) the solutions to the homework exercises unless otherwise indicated.

Missing Projects/Assignments

Missing work will be assigned a grade of zero. Late submissions will start at 90% of the maximum points available and assignment grade will decrease by 2 points for each day thereafter. It should be noted that no assignment will be accepted for credit more than three (3) days after its original due date. Late submissions without pre-clearance will start at 80% of the maximum points available.

Final Examinations:

Please note that students are expected to be on-campus and available to take a final examination for any of their courses at anytime during the final examination period. Students and professors will be notified of the final examination schedule being posted on the Office of the Registrar website as soon as feasible after the change of schedule period (drop and add).

Make-up Quizzes and Exams

A cumulative final exam will be scheduled. Students are not allowed to miss an exam except for a valid medical excuse.

Group Work

A group project will be assigned with the aim of providing students with a realistic application of the course material. The project will be divided into two phases, covering a deterministic analysis first, then a probabilistic analysis. More details about the project will be provided in due course.

Teaching Strategies and Technology Tools

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Use of AI in the Course

AI can be used for research and information gathering, for writing assistance like grammar, spelling checks, and formatting of documents. AI CANNOT be used as an original work, or for exam and quiz assistance or to paraphrase sentences. AI detection tools will be used to check assignments and violating papers will be given a non-negotiable zero grade.

University Rules and Regulations

General Academic Information

Undergraduate Academic Information

Graduate Academic Information

University - Course Withdrawal Policy

A student can withdraw from only one required course per semester. Students who wish to withdraw from more than one required course in any given semester must petition the appropriate faculty committee for permission to do so. Check Withdrawal Information from undergraduate and graduate catalogue.

Academic Integrity (cheating and plagiarism)

Please refer to AUB Student Code of Conduct, in particular section 1.1, which concerns academic misconduct including cheating, plagiarism, in-class disruption, and dishonesty. Please be aware that misconduct is vigorously prosecuted and that AUB has a zero tolerance policy. Course policy is that credible evidence of cheating will result in course failure.

Accessibility Statement to Acknowledge the Unique Learning Needs of Students with Disabilities

AUB strives to make learning experiences as accessible as possible. If you anticipate or experience academic barriers due to a diagnosed disability (including learning disability, mental health, chronic or temporary medical conditions), please contact the Accessible Education Office as soon as possible in order to help establish reasonable accommodations and facilitate a smooth learning process: accessibility@aub.edu.lb; +961-1-350000, x3151; West Hall, 338.

Failure to implement the accommodations provided by the Accessible Education Office constitutes a violation of AUB's non-discrimination policy, and may be reported to the Equal Opportunity Officer/Title IX Coordinator who also serves in the role of Section 504 Coordinator, at 01-350000 ext. 2514, titleix@aub.edu.lb.

Non-Discrimination and Anti-Discriminatory Harassment, including Sexual Harassment at AUB https://www.aub.edu.lb/President/oeo-titleix/Pages/syllabus.aspx

In line with its commitment to the principle of equal opportunity in admission, education, and employment, AUB policies protect you from discrimination and discriminatory harassment, including sex discrimination and sexual harassment, in alignment with the objectives of Title IX of the U.S. Education Amendments of 1972.

The policies are applicable to all the AUB Community including: officers, faculty, staff, academic appointees, students (including medical interns and residents), visiting students, alumni, trainees, visitors, contractors, subcontractors, suppliers, located on campus and at AUB Medical Center, Advancing Research Enabling Communities Center (AREC), or any other facility or program affiliated with the University. The “AUB Community" also includes the dependents and domestic employees of faculty and staff dwelling on campus and at AREC.

If you think you have experienced discrimination, discriminatory harassment, or sexual harassment, we encourage you to inform the Title IX Coordinator, Mitra Tauk at 01-350000 ext. 2514, titleix@aub.edu.lb, report to a Title IX deputy at your faculty or at any other faculty (www.aub.edu.lb/titleix), or report online (www.aub.ethicspoint.com).

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AUB Grading System

https://www.aub.edu.lb/Registrar/Pages/academic-information.aspx

Numeric Course Grade to Letter Course Grade Grade Conversion Chart Table 5:Numeric Course Grade to Letter Course Grade Table 6: Grade Conversion Chart Starting with Numeric Course Grade /100 Corresponding Course Letter Grade Course Letter Grade Quality Points < 60 F A+ 4.3 60 D A 4.0 61–62 D+ A– 3.7 63–65 C– B+ 3.3 66–68 C B 3.0 69–71 C+ B– 2.7 72–74 B– C+ 2.3 75–78 B C 2.0 79–82 B+ C– 1.7 83–86 A– D+ 1.3 87–92 A D 1.0 93–100 A+ F 0.0

Note: The GPA at AUB is capped at 4.0​​

I ​P ​PR ​W NP ​Incomplete ​Pass ​In Progress ​Withdraw ​No Pass